Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Electoral Vote Prediction Wednesdays!

Welcome to the inaugural Electoral Vote Prediction Wednesday! Hopefully this will become a recurring feature. Like most prediction things, this will probably end up telling the dear reader more about what I think about the Presidential race than any thing close to reality. I have done my cursory look at the polls and am feeling pretty good about an Obama landslide, even though McCain is the Lazarus of the 2008 election. Not letting that get in my way, I feel like the electoral college will come out thusly:

Obama-412

McCain-126

Insanity? Probably. But it is the first prediction, and I am feeling frisky.

Here is the breakdown state by state. Starting on the East Coast

Obama-ME, NH, VT, MA, CT, RI, NY, NJ, DC, PA, WV, VA, NC, SC, GA, FL, OH, MI, IN, IL, WI, MN, IA, MO, ND, SD, MT, CO, NM, NV, WA, OR, and CA.

McCain-KY, TN, AL, MS, AR, LA, NE, KS, OK, TX, WY, ID, UT, AZ.

At this point, I see Obama taking the Coastal South including the Carolinas, Georgia, and Florida. I also think Obama will make gains in the Northern Plains and Mountain States of the Dakotas and Montana.

Remember there are no hard and fast rules here, and if anything I played really fast and loose with this prediction (Ah, mixing metaphors and playing with the meanings of words). We will just call this the Landslide Prediction Version 1. Version 2, if it appears likely will have other states switching like Mississippi and maybe Arizona.
We will return to this next Wednesday. Maybe.

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