Oil Independence

I think it is time we change our rhetoric on oil independence. It has been common since 9/11 for many people to talk about the need for foreign oil independence because the money going to the middle east helps fund terrorism. On a geopolitical level, this logic makes sense. In fact, some version of this idea has been around since at least the 1970s with the first oil shocks, in that it has been viewed as a bad thing for the United States to be so dependent upon foreign oil. I think it is time for a change in the way we think about this issue though. Namely, we need to stop talking about getting off foreign oil, or achieving foreign oil independence, and start talking about achieving oil independence in general.

It seems readily apparent that tying our economy to one commodity such as petroleum has been a terribly bad idea as we begin to see the effects of that choice upon the broader economy. Reduced consumer spending is going to become a reality as long as we live in a period of the 100 dollar fill up. It is obvious to me as well that slowly things will simply change. Humans have lived through periods of expensive energy before, namely any period before the invention of the automobile and the exploitation of petroleum as a means to power those automobiles, and will be able to adjust to a new reality of expensive petroleum based energy sources. It is likely though, that this period will be economically painful. These reasons make the necessity finding new energy bases for our economy imperative. One place I think we should start is instead of talking about independence from foreign oil, we should be talking about moving away from using oil altogether. Changing our rhetoric will be easy. However, I do not know how we will ultimately achieve the specific change in policy, and at the risk of sounding flippant, I am sure something will come up.

What I mean more accurately is increasing costs of petroleum energy sources make alternatives much more viable as technological and market development reduce costs of those alternatives. The result of this is two cost lines on a graph, one the increasing cost of oil based energy sources and the other a decreasing cost of bringing certain technologies to market that will coalesce around a new point that will be how society then becomes based. For example, from say 1920 to 1960, roughly, trains and streetcars were the primary mode of transportation for many people in this country whether locally or long distance. Following the beginning of construction of the interstate highway system, and all federal highways in general, and the development of the jet liner, the system of transit in this country moved to an automobile/bus/airplane equilibrium. We are now in a position, due to rising oil prices, in which that equilibrium is unsustainable, and will change again.

Hopefully it will change back to trains.

I like trains.